Ziyu Guo¹ Muhammad Hafeez^2,3  Wenxin Wang^4,5 Md Abdul Kaium⁶ Ahmer Bilal⁷ Israt Zahan⁸

Author Details：

1. Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Bao’an District, Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, China. 2. Adnan Kassar School of Business, Lebanese American University, Beirut, Lebanon, Institute of Business Management Sciences, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan. 3. Adnan Kassar School of Business, Lebanese American University, Beirut, Lebanon, Institute of Business Management Sciences, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan. 4. School of Public Health, Shantou    University, Shantou, Guangdong, People’s Republic of China, Institute of Local Government Development, Shantou University, Shan‐Tou, People’s Republic of China. 5. School of Public Health, Shantou University, Shantou, Guangdong, People’s Republic of China, Institute of Local Government Development, Shantou University, Shan‐Tou, People’s Republic of China. 6. Department of Marketing, University of Barishal, Barishal, Bangladesh. 7. School of Economics, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan, China. 8. Department of Public Administration, University of Barishal, Barishal, Bangladesh.

Abstract

The health costs of economic uncertainty always remain a major concern among policymakers of China. The theoretical and empirical literature on the economic uncertainty-human health nexus is still in its infancy stage. This study is firmly rooted in the economic uncertainty theory advanced by Baker, Bloom, & Davis. In this study, the primary objective of the analysis is to estimate the asymmetric impact of economic uncertainty on human health in China's economy. In order to evaluate the short and long-run estimates of economic uncertainty on human health across various quantiles, we have employed the linear and nonlinear QARDL models. The linear QARDL model shows that the long-run relationship between economic uncertainty and the infant mortality rate is positive and significant at all quantiles, while the long-run relationship between economic uncertainty and the death rate is positive and significant at higher quantiles. The nonlinear QARDL model reveals that, in the long run, the relationship between the positive shock of economic uncertainty and the infant mortality rate is positive and significant at quantiles 0.30 to 0.95, while the long-run relationship between the positive shock of economic uncertainty and the death rate is positive and significant at higher quantiles. The relationship between the negative shock of economic uncertainty and the infant mortality rate is negative and significant at the highest quantiles, while the relationship between the negative shock of economic uncertainty and death rate is negative and significant at higher quantiles in the long run. The findings indicate a positive relationship between economic uncertainty in China and higher rates of infant mortality and death. Thus, adopting suitable policies for controlling economic uncertainty can help in improving human health in China.

经济不确定性带来的健康成本始终是中国政策制定者的主要关注点。关于经济不确定性与人类健康关系的理论和实证文献仍处于起步阶段。这项研究牢牢植根于贝克、布鲁姆和戴维斯提出的经济不确定性理论。在这项研究中，分析的主要目的是估计经济不确定性对中国经济中人类健康的不对称影响。为了评估不同分位数对人类健康经济不确定性的短期和长期估计，我们采用了线性和非线性QARDL模型。线性QARDL模型表明，经济不确定性与婴儿死亡率之间的长期关系在所有分位数上均为正且显著，而在较高分位数上，经济不确定性与死亡率之间的长期关系为正且显著。非线性QARDL模型表明，从长期来看，经济不确定性的正冲击与婴儿死亡率之间的关系在0.30-0.95分位数处呈正显著关系，而在较高分位数处，经济不确定性正冲击与死亡率的长期关系呈正显著。从长远来看，经济不确定性的负冲击与婴儿死亡率之间的关系在最高分位数上呈负且显著，而经济不确定性的负冲击与死亡率之间的关系在较高分位数上呈负且显著。

研究结果表明，中国经济的不确定性与较高的婴儿死亡率之间存在正相关关系。因此，采取适当的政策来控制经济不确定性有助于改善中国的人类健康。

注：本成果获得汕头大学地方政府发展研究所2019、2021年度开放基金（No. 07419005、07421005）的资助。

Cite this article:

Ziyu Guo, Muhammad Hafeez, Wenxin Wang , Md Abdul Kaium, Ahmer Bilal, Israt Zahan. Is the economic uncertainty– human health relationship nonlinear? An empirical analysis for the China. PloS one, 18(12), e0293126.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0293126